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Justify the choice of the dependent variables, independent variables, data points (if applicable)

U.S. Coffee Market (A) (9-582-087)— from the course pack
1. Make and justify the following forecasts
a. the size of the total retail market in 1983 and 1988
b. the split of the market by major segments (decaf versus caf., etc.)


i. Justify the choice of the dependent variables, independent variables, data points (if applicable)
ii. Discuss the assumptions that you underlie your forecasts (differentiate facts from assumptions). please give market share forecasts for 1983 and 1988. 1b is about whether the market share trend for that sub-market is up or down so in 1b you will use regressions as well but just time trend regressions.


iii. Discuss any caveats associated with your forecasts

2. What are the implications of your forecasts in Question 1 for the marketing

strategy of each major producer?



These written assignments should not exceed four pages. Up to three pages of supporting material (tables, figures, graphs) may be attached. This material should be referenced in the text of the write-up. Professional quality writing and presentation are expected. Write-ups must be double-spaced, in 12-point font with 1” margins.


Please attach a copy of the computer printouts of the regressions you based your forecasts on in Q1a and Q1b as an appendix to your US Coffee A case assignment. You do not need to include all the regressions you tried (mention these in the text but I do not need their computer printouts).


Your answers and recommendations should be based on quantitative and qualitative analysis of case data. Your analysis should anticipate potential objections to your recommendations and illustrate its superiority over other alternatives.  It should be analytic and deliberative in tone.  The most persuasive documents are the ones that debate more than advocate.  After all, if you do not look at all alternatives, how do you know that you have chosen the best one? In answering the case questions, do not describe the case, but focus on the following three factors: 1) careful analysis of the situation, 2) description of your decisions or recommendations; 3) supporting logic and analyses. Assignments will be described in more detail as we get closer to the due date. Note that these assignments require data analysis as well as creativity/judgment.

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