Write an essay, not exceeding 1500 words, analyzing how an ageing population may affect economic growth in the very long-run.
Consider the following extract from an article in The Economist magazine:
The number of people (in the world) over 65 is set to double within just 25 years. This shift in the structure of the population is not as momentous as the expansion that came before. But it is more than enough to reshape the world economy.
According to the UNs population projections, the standard source for demographic estimates, there are around 600m people aged 65 or older alive today. As a share of the total population, at 8%, it is not that different to what it was a few decades ago.
By 2035, however, more than 1.1 billion people13% of the populationwill be above the age of 65. This is a natural corollary of the dropping birth rates that are slowing overall population growth; they mean there are proportionally fewer young people around. The old-age dependency ratiothe ratio of old people to those of working agewill grow even faster. In 2010 the world had 16 people aged 65 and over for every 100 adults between the ages of 25 and 64, almost the same ratio it had in 1980. By 2035 the UN expects that number to have risen to 26………. The received wisdom is that a larger proportion of old people means slower growth
(Source: Age invaders, The Economist, Apr 26th 2014)
Write an essay, not exceeding 1500 words, analyzing how an ageing population may affect economic growth in the very long-run.
Important: You must include at least two line diagrams in your essay, although equations may also be used. If you do not include diagrams in your essay, you will not receive a pass mark.
Your essay should include the following:
An introductory section discussing the scale of the problem. This section should include some data.
A main section which applies the Solow model, endogenous growth theory, and theories of consumption to predict the effects of an ageing population either on a specific economy or in general.
A concluding section giving the main arguments and thoughts for future research.
At least two line diagrams, although equations may also be used. If you do not include diagrams in your essay, you will not receive a pass mark.
Some use of data to back up your analysis.
